CLICK to go to 2012 ZiPS/DMB Projection Disk Season replay pages.
[UNDER CONSTRUCTION -- Shows best in Firefox browser.]
April 26, 2012
· 
admin · 
No Comments
Tags: Diamond Mind Baseball · Posted in: 2012 DMB Season, Diamond Mind Baseball
Regression Tool
Regression is especially useful when talking about platoon splits, which is why I previously made a manual splits calculator tool (along with the fact that the one I used to use from berselius on Another Cubs Blog no longer worked). The problem is that, while my earlier tool did all the calculations automatically, entering the data was alarmingly difficult. To fix this, I’ve made a new tool (xls version) (updated as of 4/21/2012), and included a bunch of other statistics that one might wish to regress for good measure. …
• NEW TOOL
• XLS VERSION
April 22, 2012
· admin · No Comments
Tags: DRays Bay, Regression · Posted in: Baseball, Sabermetrics
Wei-Yin Chen
Wei-Yin Chen’s Oliver forecast (Brian Cartwright for The Hardball Times):
Chen’s PECOTA forecast:
April 19, 2012
· admin · No Comments
Tags: Brian Cartwright, Oliver Forecasts, Projections, The Hardball Times, Wei-Yin Chen · Posted in: 2012 DMB Season, Projections
Action! PC 2011-2012 NBA Standings – through games of April 14, 2012
2011-12 Proj++ Standings (April 14, 2012)
Eastern
Conference W L Pct GB Stk Pts Opp Diff Home Road Div Off/100 Def/100
Miami 43 15 .741 - W2 95.1 88.3 6.8 22-7 21-8 9-3 105.1 96.1
Chicago 41 18 .695 2.5 L1 96.3 89.3 7.0 23-7 18-11 8-3 106.5 98.7
Indiana 38 22 .633 6.0 W5 98.9 93.9 5.1 22-6 16-16 7-3 112.8 106.6
Milwaukee 37 23 .617 7.0 L1 94.6 88.5 6.1 17-13 20-10 7-7 105.3 99.9
New York 33 26 .559 10.5 W1 96.0 90.7 5.2 23-7 10-19 8-4 129.7 126.3
Orlando 31 28 .525 12.5 L1 94.0 92.7 1.3 20-11 11-17 8-6 115.1 113.3
Philadelphia 31 28 .525 12.5 W2 92.0 88.1 3.9 20-12 11-16 8-4 109.2 103.8
Boston 30 30 .500 14.0 L2 90.4 90.9 -0.5 17-13 13-17 5-8 108.7 106.9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cleveland 28 30 .483 15.0 W1 92.5 94.6 -2.1 18-11 10-19 5-8 105.7 110.3
Atlanta 26 33 .441 17.5 W1 89.9 90.6 -0.7 16-11 10-22 6-8 110.2 107.6
Detroit 23 36 .390 20.5 L1 92.4 94.3 -1.9 12-16 11-20 3-9 103.5 107.2
Charlotte 21 37 .362 22.0 L2 86.6 93.8 -7.2 11-16 10-21 7-6 94.6 101.9
New Jersey 22 39 .361 22.5 W1 93.6 96.6 -3.0 14-16 8-23 4-7 109.3 116.9
Toronto 21 39 .350 23.0 W1 91.6 97.1 -5.5 14-17 7-22 6-8 103.3 109.8
Washington 21 39 .350 23.0 L7 88.8 95.6 -6.8 11-19 10-20 2-9 103.1 107.7
Western
Conference W L Pct GB Stk Pts Opp Diff Home Road Div Off/100 Def/100
Los Angeles L 47 13 .783 - W1 95.5 85.9 9.6 25-5 22-8 9-3 100.9 91.3
Oklahoma City 39 21 .650 8.0 W6 99.6 94.8 4.8 25-6 14-15 10-2 119.1 113.9
Los Angeles C 36 24 .600 11.0 L2 96.5 92.4 4.1 18-13 18-11 7-6 104.5 100.2
San Antonio 33 25 .569 13.0 W6 97.0 94.0 3.0 23-7 10-18 9-7 106.3 101.7
Memphis 33 26 .559 13.5 W2 94.6 92.3 2.3 20-9 13-17 8-5 105.5 101.6
Denver 33 26 .559 13.5 L1 91.6 90.4 1.2 21-9 12-17 7-4 109.7 107.9
Portland 33 27 .550 14.0 W2 91.3 89.7 1.6 21-11 12-16 4-8 101.6 98.5
Phoenix 30 30 .500 17.0 L1 91.5 91.6 -0.1 18-10 12-20 7-6 102.3 103.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Golden State 29 30 .492 17.5 W2 93.0 95.3 -2.3 17-12 12-18 6-8 105.8 107.2
Dallas 28 32 .467 19.0 L2 95.7 95.7 0.0 17-14 11-18 6-6 105.0 106.0
Houston 25 34 .424 21.5 L1 98.9 101.2 -2.2 15-15 10-19 4-7 104.2 108.2
Utah 23 38 .377 24.5 L1 96.8 102.4 -5.6 13-16 10-22 5-6 98.8 103.2
Sacramento 20 40 .333 27.0 L3 95.7 102.8 -7.1 12-17 8-23 3-9 95.5 104.6
Minnesota 19 42 .311 28.5 L3 93.1 98.7 -5.6 12-18 7-24 3-9 100.1 107.7
New Orleans 18 41 .305 28.5 L1 86.4 97.5 -11.1 9-22 9-19 4-6 104.2 116.0
April 15, 2012
· admin · No Comments
Tags: Action! PC Basketball · Posted in: Action! PC Basketball
Cognitive biases
List of cognitive biases
• Anchoring
• Attentional Bias
• Confirmation Bias
• Dunning-Kruger Effect
• Gambler’s Fallacy
• Hindsight Bias
• Illusion of Control
• Just-World Hypothesis
• Observer-Expectancy Effect
• Outcome Bias
• Projection Bias
• Recency Illusion
• Selective Perception
March 23, 2012
· admin · No Comments
Tags: Cognitive biases, Statistic · Posted in: General, Sabermetrics
Action! PC 2011-2012 NBA Standings – through 3/13/2012
2011-2012 Proj++ NBA Standings (updated 3/13/2012)
Atlantic W L Pct GB Stk Pts Opp Diff Home Road Div Off/100 Def/100
New York 26 16 .619 - L1 96.2 89.9 6.3 16-5 10-11 26-16 139.6 133.5
Boston 21 20 .512 4.5 W1 89.4 90.1 -0.7 13-11 8-9 21-20 117.4 116.2
Philadelphia 21 21 .500 5.0 L2 92.1 89.3 2.9 15-9 6-12 21-21 117.1 112.9
New Jersey 15 28 .349 11.5 L1 93.0 96.5 -3.5 9-10 6-18 15-28 118.9 125.9
Toronto 13 29 .310 13.0 W1 91.7 97.4 -5.7 9-12 4-17 13-29 109.1 115.7
Central W L Pct GB Stk Pts Opp Diff Home Road Div Off/100 Def/100
Chicago 33 11 .750 - W5 97.3 88.2 9.1 17-3 16-8 33-11 111.6 101.1
Milwaukee 27 15 .643 5.0 W2 94.5 87.9 6.5 11-8 16-7 27-15 109.3 102.8
Indiana 22 18 .550 9.0 L3 97.0 95.2 1.8 12-5 10-13 22-18 117.3 114.6
Cleveland 20 20 .500 11.0 L1 94.7 93.8 0.9 15-7 5-13 20-20 110.6 112.3
Detroit 18 24 .429 14.0 W3 93.2 93.9 -0.7 10-13 8-11 18-24 109.8 112.6
Southeast W L Pct GB Stk Pts Opp Diff Home Road Div Off/100 Def/100
Miami 31 10 .756 - W4 93.6 87.7 5.9 15-5 16-5 31-10 108.0 99.1
Orlando 21 22 .488 11.0 L1 95.1 94.1 1.0 13-9 8-13 21-22 119.0 118.2
Atlanta 18 24 .429 13.5 W2 88.5 89.7 -1.2 10-8 8-16 18-24 115.5 113.6
Washington 15 26 .366 16.0 L1 91.4 94.4 -3.0 8-14 7-12 15-26 109.7 111.1
Charlotte 12 28 .300 18.5 W1 83.2 93.3 -10.2 7-11 5-17 12-28 95.7 106.2
Northwest W L Pct GB Stk Pts Opp Diff Home Road Div Off/100 Def/100
Oklahoma City 26 16 .619 - W4 99.1 96.7 2.4 16-5 10-11 26-16 131.3 128.8
Denver 24 19 .558 2.5 L1 90.6 89.8 0.7 14-9 10-10 24-19 111.0 109.7
Portland 22 20 .524 4.0 W1 91.3 90.1 1.2 13-8 9-12 22-20 103.8 100.9
Utah 15 26 .366 10.5 L2 96.9 102.6 -5.8 8-13 7-13 15-26 100.8 105.7
Minnesota 14 29 .326 12.5 L6 92.7 97.8 -5.1 9-15 5-14 14-29 103.9 110.7
Pacific W L Pct GB Stk Pts Opp Diff Home Road Div Off/100 Def/100
Los Angeles L 33 9 .786 - L1 95.4 84.7 10.6 16-4 17-5 33-9 102.9 92.5
Los Angeles C 25 15 .625 7.0 L1 96.2 91.0 5.2 11-8 14-7 25-15 107.9 102.9
Phoenix 20 21 .488 12.5 W2 90.3 92.3 -2.0 13-9 7-12 20-21 104.9 109.0
Golden State 19 20 .487 12.5 L3 94.7 96.4 -1.7 11-9 8-11 19-20 112.6 112.6
Sacramento 15 27 .357 18.0 W1 95.4 102.6 -7.2 7-11 8-16 15-27 98.2 108.2
Southwest W L Pct GB Stk Pts Opp Diff Home Road Div Off/100 Def/100
San Antonio 22 18 .550 - L2 98.6 96.1 2.5 14-6 8-12 22-18 113.4 109.6
Memphis 22 19 .537 0.5 W1 91.9 91.6 0.3 14-7 8-12 22-19 107.6 104.6
Dallas 23 21 .523 1.0 W4 96.3 94.3 2.0 14-9 9-12 23-21 111.5 109.4
Houston 18 25 .419 5.5 L3 99.7 101.9 -2.2 11-10 7-15 18-25 107.6 112.2
New Orleans 14 28 .333 9.0 L1 87.0 98.1 -11.1 6-15 8-13 14-28 110.0 122.4
March 13, 2012
· admin · No Comments
Tags: Action! PC Basketball, Kobe Bryant · Posted in: Action! PC Basketball
Work-around for second wild card team format with Diamond Mind Baseball
From Fans of Diamond Mind Baseball Forum.
Q:
Does anyone know if it is possible to add a round to the playoff format? I currently have one organization with two leagues and each league has two divisions. The playoff format has a total of six teams per league with the two division winners getting a bye and the non division winners playing in a wild card round. I set up the games in the schedule but the problem I run into is when I try to import the results from other players. I get an error that says “Unable to post bracket results for ***.xga.” The game updates the first game in the logged games but then forces me to restart the application in order to import the next game. The other problem is that the stats for this added round get added on to the next series. Not a big deal but it is a bit annoying. Thanks in advance for any help.
A:
There’s not a fourth round available in the DMB playoff structure. As you’ve discovered, you can trick it and double up on the third round but you’ve already learned the drawbacks, that is, you can only import a game at a time and the stats from the two rounds get combined.
——————————————————————————————————-
Q:
I’m hoping to play a series of “What If” sims that take my top 4 seeds from each league for a given year and have them play a 9 game series.
For example, seed #4 plays #1, and seeds #2 and #3 play, for a “best of” 9 game series, then the winners play in a 9 game series, too. The winners from each league then play in a 9 game series to crown the champ. I might have the champs from different years play some time down the line…
I like 9 rather than 7 game series just to make it bit less random.
How do I go about setting this up, say, for the year 1977?
Using three separate standard deviation scores I formulated, I came up with these top 4 seeds in each league for that year[.]
….
Any help would be appreciated!
A:
Assign two leagues to an organization. Modify each league and fill in the first round brackets. Change the format to something like: 01102201102201. Generate the first round schedule from the scheduler tools.
FOLLOWUP
Q:
I’m still confused by this. I don’t want to set up a “season” with the 9 game series, because if someone “sweeps” in 5 games, obviously that’s it. A real schedule plays out regardless…
“Assign two leagues to an organization. Modify each league and fill in the first round brackets. Change the format to something like: 01102201102201.”
I did all of this, but I don’t know how to generate the schedule properly…
A:
You won’t be able to generate it in this case but rather create the games manually. With a few tricks, it’s not nearly as bad as it sounds. Assuming the first round is Tex @ KC, Bos @ NY, Cin @ LA, and Pit @ Phi, what I’d do is start with an new, empty schedule. Click on the New button and choose “Add multiple games”. Assuming the format I recommended above, enter a date, Tex and KC, Regular Season for type, and Games to two. Repeat for the other three pairings. Now for the cool part. Select all eight games in the schedule (left-click on the first game to select it, hold down the Shift key, and left-click on the last game.) Click on the Copy button. Set the date when the third games should be played and reverse the teams. Click on OK and you just doubled the size of your schedule. By selecting groups of games and using the Copy button, you’ll have your nine game series in a matter of seconds.
——————————————————————————————————-
Q:
I know the purists will scoff at this, however, the 3 leagues I play in (one is solitaire) allow for more playoff teams than the dmb bracket shows. Is there a way to toggle this so the bracket shows all teams?
Additionally, is there a way in the encyclopedia or the game to show combined post season stats?
A:
No, but there are ways of tricking DMB, at least for the solitaire league. For the other two leagues it would be best to make copies (File menu) of the database and play pre-first round games on them. When you’re down to the final 8 teams (2 leagues), switch back to the master database and continue the post season there.
Quote: Additionally, is there a way in the encyclopedia or the game to show combined post season stats?
No, but it’s been requested.
Luke
FOLLOWUP:
Q:How do you trick the game in the solitaire league
A:
Schedule the pre-eight team games manually, setting the game type to Division Series. Do NOT fill in the league brackets on the post season page. Once you get down to the final eight, fill in the brackets. You’ll still need to schedule the games manually but only this last time. From here on out, you’ll be able to use the normal, DMB post season scheduling.
Scheduling series isn’t too bad. What I do is use the “Add multiple games” and add the first two games of a series. Repeat for the other three matchups. That’ll give you eight games (2 games x 4 series). Now highlight all eight games. Click on the Copy button along the top of the schedule. Set the date so you’ll have an off-day for travel. Check the box for reversing the teams and click on OK. Now hightlight the four games on the last day and click on Copy again. This time you won’t add an off-day or reverse the teams. Click on OK. Now highlight all eight games from the last two days and Copy again. Add in an off-day and reverse the teams. After you click on OK, you’ve got all four series going seven games. Note, if you’re doing best of five, you’ll do something similar.
Luke
——————————————————————————————————-
Q:
What I’ve got so far: One league, 4 divisions, 24 teams.I want: the first and 2nd place team in each division to meet in playoff-round-1; then go from there…so that means 8 teams make the playoffs…it sounds like if it were only 4, it’d be easy…but 8 is a problem? Can it be overcome? Or do I have to break the 4 divisions into 2 leagues and use an organization above that for the world series? I’m flexible, whatever it takes to make it work.
it’s a solitaire league, I’ll be playing it all; and the league hasn’t started yet. I’m still setting things up, doing the draft, etc. So any kind of changes are still possible.
A:
Making it two leagues under one organization but it can be done trickily if it has to be one league. For reports, you can have them run against the organization rather than doing everything twice if they were separate leagues.
Luke
——————————————————————————————————-
Q:
I really enjoy replaying the playoff games and World Series matches for various years.
Is there any possible way you could replay for example the 2k5…2k6…1959…1944…etc etc World Series of each year and then have the winners face winners from other years in the next round…etc etc?? If so, I guess you would be forced to use the neutral era instead of the normal years at least for the first round.
I would think the only possible way would be to place all the teams in a neutral league and add to the schedule as you go and just leave off any more games for the losers.
I think I can figure that out and there is a thread on it somewhere in the forum. Just like creating any kind of special leagues with varied teams.
I was just hoping there was a way for the first round to actually work with the actual years ERA for AL or NL and then go to neutral for the other rounds.
Appreciate your time.
A:
You could always play the first round in the individual season databases and then create a new empty database and import the winners to it. You’d probably have to do that anyway since a database can only hold 64 teams. Depending on how far back you go, you may need to create two empty database for the second round. Once you get do to a single database, yes, you can add games to the schedule on the fly as you prepare for the next round.
Luke
Quote: Thanks Luke. Guess I was thinking if you imported a team that their stats would go to zero. I know that’s not so.
Actually they do go to zero. Since there’ll be more than 64 teams I don’t think there’s a way around this.
Quote: When I do the imports after playing the original WSeries for said season will the import also include the game boxscores and pbp for the report tool? Just wondering.
Nope, an import won’t bring them along either. I guess your best plan would be to limit it to 32 seasons. You’ll be able to bring their eras and use them for the first round. You can change a league’s era any time you want.
Quote: No way it will approach even 32 seasons. But I’m confused. I know it happens often. Are you telling me for the first round I could have different eras for each two team match? And if so, and you can change the era any time you want…then why couldn’t I pick a different era for each match for round 2. If the 2 teams playing in a match in the second round are close in eras I just plan on flipping a coin and picking one of them for the series. If there is a big difference in eras I would go with neutral. So I could decide what era for each series in any round and just change the league era for the one I would be using just for that series. Right?
You could have a different era for EVERY game. The era used for a game is based on the home team’s league era which you can change at any time. You may not have realized this but when you played the 2006 World Series, you were using two eras. The 2006 N when St. Louis was home and the 2006 A when Detroit was the home team.
Luke
——————————————————————————————————-
——————————————————————————————————-
delatopia wrote:
Ah, the manual entry of two five-game series and setting those games as division series without filling in the playoff bracket looks like it will work perfectly. Thank you, diesel.
diesel wrote:
Yes, that’s usually the easiest method of adding an additional round of post-season games. However, there are two issues to be aware of when you do this.
First, since your extra round is scheduled as division series games, the stats from your first two rounds will be combined. That is assuming you schedule your second round games as division series as well. There isn’t much you can do about this and still keep everything in one database since your options for game types are limited. Your final two rounds can be scheduled as usual as league series and organization series.
Second, there is a known issue that results in an error message when you import game accounts (Transfer -> Import statistics) for the first round, and I think the second round, but I don’t recall for certain.
The error is usually something similar to, “Unable to post bracket results for.xga”. When this error occurs, it is generally accompanied by most of the game’s menu commands being disabled. This problem is a side-effect of trying to import a post-season game that was scheduled outside of the regular playoff brackets. In other words, an extra round outside of what the game is designed to handle in the post-season match-ups that you would normally set through the Leagues tab. No harm is caused when this error occurs, but there isn’t any way to avoid this problem.
The workaround is to import only a single game at a time from each results file. The error will still occur each time and the game’s menus will become disabled, but if you close and open DMB, or switch to a different database using the File > Change active database command (this menu command isn’t disabled) and then switch back, the menus will be enabled again and you can proceed to import the next game. Continue importing one game at a time in this manner until all the games from all results files for this round are imported.
delatopia wrote:
This shouldn’t be a problem. We break out playoff statistics as a whole and for the World Series only, and if having to import a short series game by game is the price for a workable system that doesn’t force me to build and work with another database, I’m very cool with that. Appreciate it.
March 4, 2012
· admin · No Comments
Tags: Diamond Mind Baseball, Division Series, Fans of Diamond Mind Baseball, Second wild card team format, Wild Card · Posted in: Diamond Mind Baseball
